Insights

Weekly Market Commentary December 10, 2018

The market is starting to grate on some investors. The S&P 500 dropped 4.6% last week on concerns the reported trade truce wasn’t as substantial as hoped and that global economic growth continued to slow. Global stocks participated in the decline as the MSCI ACWI lost 3.5% last week. Read more

Gifts without the Guilt – Tips for Avoiding Financial Stress at the Holidays

Pop quiz: Can you name more than three gifts you got for the holidays last year? A sweater, an Apple watch, a popcorn tin … and, ummmm? Most of us would be hard-pressed to answer this question, even by late January.

What we remember, of course, are the moments with family and friends – the relationships that are renewed in the holiday time of slowing down. Material gifts are fine for the moment, but they are usually forgotten even before they have the chance to break and wear out. Read more

Weekly Market Commentary December 3, 2018

Last week provided investors clarity on their two biggest concerns: interest rates and trade. Federal Reserve communication indicated rate increases will likely slow in 2019, and over the weekend, the U.S. and China announced an agreement to delay an increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on a wide range of U.S. goods. In exchange, the Chinese will buy more U.S. goods, and both sides will seek an agreement in the next quarter.

Markets reacted very positively to the news on rates. The S&P soared 4.8%. The gains marked the second time this quarter the S&P 500 has neared a 10% fall and rallied back. The MSCI ACWI gained 3.3% as global stocks joined the rally. The Bloomberg BarCap Aggregate Bond Index edged up 0.1%.

Despite the volatility, November’s returns were positive, as the strong performance last week pushed stock indexes from negative to positive returns. The S&P rose 1.8%, and the MSCI ACWI climbed 1.3%. The Aggregate Bond Index rallied 0.6% as concerns about slowing economic growth aided bonds.

---

KEY POINTS FOR THE WEEK

• U.S. stocks rallied sharply last week.
• Interest rates are not likely to rise as quickly as many investors feared.
• The U.S. will delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods as part of trade negotiations.

---

ECONOMIC NEWS

U.S. economic data released last week shows inflation stagnating and consumer spending at the highest level it’s been in seven months. PCE core inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 1.8%. It was the lowest level since February and is below the Fed’s target of 2%. Consumer spending increased by 0.6% in October, while wages rose by 0.3%. Both data points suggest the consumer remains a source of strength in the U.S. economy.

The lower inflation data reinforces other data indicating the economy is slowing. Investors worried the Fed would keep raising rates despite how low inflation has contributed to recent volatility. But when the minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting were released, the rate hike path for 2019 appeared less certain. While the minutes suggested the plan to raise rates in December is a foregone conclusion, the Fed indicated it would be more flexible and pay close attention to economic data and react accordingly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that interest rates were just below neutral, which is a level where interest rates neither speed nor slow economic growth. This soothed many investors’ concerns on whether interest rates would be raised too high and hurt economic growth.

FUN STORY

Customers were mistakenly given $100 bills instead of $20s from ATM

Christmas came early for some Bank of America customers in Texas last week when an ATM started spitting out $100 bills instead of $20s. After news spread, a long line formed of people seeking a quick 500% return. Apparently caught up in the spirit of cheer, Bank of America said customers could keep the money because it was the company’s error.

---

This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

MSCI ACWI INDEX

The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 23 emerging markets (EM) countries*. With 2,480 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds

Compliance case: 00362855

Weekly Market Commentary November 26, 2018

Global stocks continued to decline as economic weakness and the possibility of further rate increases by the Federal Reserve worried investors. After rallying in late October and early November, global stocks were trading near the levels reached during the October decline. Read more

The 4 Pitfalls of No Plan

There are some things in life you just can’t plan for: an unexpected illness, job loss, death of spouse, disability…While these major events can impact your life, having an effective game plan can help ensure that it doesn’t ruin your financial well-being. Let’s say you choose to not have a financial plan. How does this decision impact the confidence you want/need for your future? Read more

Weekly Market Commentary November 19, 2018

After two straight weeks of 2%-plus returns, the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last week. Global stocks also declined, pushing the MSCI ACWI down 1.2% last week.

Read more

Weekly Market Commentary November 12, 2018

The S&P 500 rallied for the second consecutive week as markets have recovered nearly half of the losses since late September. S&P 500 soared 2.1% last week. Global stocks rallied as well, but lagged U.S. stocks. The MSCI ACWI climbed 0.9%. The Bloomberg BarCap Aggregate Bond Index rose 0.3%, partly on hopes a split Congress will result in lower deficits. Read more

Weekly Market Commentary November 5, 2018

After a rough October, the S&P 500 went into rally mode last week. Positive rumors on trade and a general recognition that the investing environment remains positive boosted stocks. The S&P 500 soared 2.4%. Global stocks rose, too, pushing the MSCI ACWI 3.1% higher. The good news in stocks, along with healthy job growth, pushed the Bloomberg BarCap Aggregate Bond Index 0.7% lower.

Read more

Pass the Turkey! – Financial Tips for the Season of Giving

As the year begins its close, traditions start to appear. From the silverware for feasts, to the tacky lawn decorations the kids love, to the choice of holiday movies, traditions remind us of who we are. There’s a story behind almost every detail, whether it’s grandma’s antique table runner or your secret family recipe for cranberry sauce, and everything is intentional, or at least seems that way. Read more

Weekly Market Commentary October 29, 2018

The S&P 500 briefly declined more than 10% from its high, set on September 21, 2018, before rallying slightly. The “correction” has come during a period of economic strength and healthy profit margins. A number of other major indexes are now in a “correction,” as they have declined more than 10%. Read more